Worldwide Threat Assessment
Annual Threat Assessment
Annual Threat Assessment
Director of National Intelligence
Selected extracts
Iran
The Middle East - An Emboldened Iran
In the Middle East, Iran and its neighbors see a strategic shift: Iran's influence is rising in ways that go beyond the menace of its nuclear program. The fall of the Taliban and Saddam,
increased oil revenues, HAMAS's electoral victory, and Hizballah's perceived recent success in fighting against Israel all extend Iran's shadow in the region. Our Arab allies fear Iran's
increasing influence, are concerned about worsening tensions between Shia and Sunni Islam, and face heightened domestic criticism for maintaining their decades-old strategic partnerships with Washington.
increased oil revenues, HAMAS's electoral victory, and Hizballah's perceived recent success in fighting against Israel all extend Iran's shadow in the region. Our Arab allies fear Iran's
increasing influence, are concerned about worsening tensions between Shia and Sunni Islam, and face heightened domestic criticism for maintaining their decades-old strategic partnerships with Washington.
Iran's growing influence has coincided with a generational change in Tehran's leadership.
Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad's administration - staffed in large part by second-generation
hardliners imbued with revolutionary ideology and deeply distrustful of the US - has stepped up the use of more assertive and offensive tactics to achieve Iran's longstanding goals.
Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad's administration - staffed in large part by second-generation
hardliners imbued with revolutionary ideology and deeply distrustful of the US - has stepped up the use of more assertive and offensive tactics to achieve Iran's longstanding goals.
However, Ahmadi-Nejad's supporters suffered setbacks in the recent Assembly of Experts and local council elections. Moreover, ethnic tensions in Iran's Baloch, Kurdish, and, to a lesser extent, Arab and Azeri areas continue to fester, creating concern in Tehran about the potential for broader ethnic unrest to generate large-scale anti-regime activity. While record oil revenues and manageable debt suggest that Iran is capable, for now, of weathering shocks to the economy, inflationary pressures, exacerbated by Ahmadi-Nejad's expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, are harming Iran's consumer and investment climates and causing employment opportunities to decline.
Regarding Tehran's regional policies, Iran continues to be active in Iraq, seeking to influence
political, economic, religious, and cultural developments to ensure a non-threatening,
cooperative, and Shia-dominated regime to its west.
political, economic, religious, and cultural developments to ensure a non-threatening,
cooperative, and Shia-dominated regime to its west.
• Iran uses radio, television, and print media to influence Iraqi public opinion and help
promote pro-Iranian individuals in the Iraqi government at all levels. It has offered
financial and other support to its political allies in the United Iraqi Alliance, but its
electoral impact appears to have been marginal, given the likelihood that Shia voters
would have voted for the unified Shia ticket anyway.
promote pro-Iranian individuals in the Iraqi government at all levels. It has offered
financial and other support to its political allies in the United Iraqi Alliance, but its
electoral impact appears to have been marginal, given the likelihood that Shia voters
would have voted for the unified Shia ticket anyway.
Iranian conventional military power threatens Persian Gulf states and challenges US interests. Iran is enhancing its ability to project its military power - primarily with ballistic missiles and naval power - with the goal of dominating the Gulf region and deterring potential adversaries. It seeks a capacity to disrupt the operations and reinforcement of US forces based in the region - potentially intimidating regional allies into withholding support for US policy - and raising the political, financial, and human costs to the US and our allies of our presence in Iraq. Tehran views its growing inventory of ballistic missiles (it already has the largest inventory of these missiles in the Middle East), as an integral part of its strategy to deter - and if necessary retaliate against - forces in the region, including US forces.
We assess that Iran regards its ability to conduct terrorist operations abroad as a key element of its national security strategy: it considers this capability as helping to safeguard the regime by deterring US or Israeli attacks, distracting and weakening Israel, enhancing Iran's regional
influence through intimidation, and helping to drive the US from the region.
influence through intimidation, and helping to drive the US from the region.
At the center of Iran's terrorism strategy is Lebanese Hizballah, which relies on Tehran for a
substantial portion of its annual budget, military equipment, and specialized training. Hizballah is focused on its agenda in Lebanon and supporting anti-Israeli Palestinian terrorists, but, as I indicated earlier, it has in the past made contingency plans to conduct attacks against US interests in the event it feels its survival - or that of Iran - is threatened.
substantial portion of its annual budget, military equipment, and specialized training. Hizballah is focused on its agenda in Lebanon and supporting anti-Israeli Palestinian terrorists, but, as I indicated earlier, it has in the past made contingency plans to conduct attacks against US interests in the event it feels its survival - or that of Iran - is threatened.
Syria has strengthened ties with Iran and grown more confident about its regional policies,
largely due to what it sees as vindication of its support to Hizballah and HAMAS and its
perceptions of its success in overcoming international attempts to isolate the regime. Damascus has failed to crack down consistently on militant infiltration into Iraq and continues to meddle in Lebanon. Lebanon remains in a politically dangerous situation as Damascus, Hizballah, and other pro-Syrian groups attempt to topple the government of Prime Minister Siniora.
largely due to what it sees as vindication of its support to Hizballah and HAMAS and its
perceptions of its success in overcoming international attempts to isolate the regime. Damascus has failed to crack down consistently on militant infiltration into Iraq and continues to meddle in Lebanon. Lebanon remains in a politically dangerous situation as Damascus, Hizballah, and other pro-Syrian groups attempt to topple the government of Prime Minister Siniora.
In the Palestinian territories, inter-factional violence, which has intensified in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank since the establishment of the HAMAS-led Palestinian Authority (PA)
government in March, threatens to escalate further absent success in forming a national unity
government. Talks have stalled over disputes about the political platform and control of key
cabinet positions. HAMAS has continued to reject Quartet and Israeli demands for explicit
recognition of Israel, renunciation of armed resistance to Israeli occupation, and acceptance of previous PLO and international agreements.
Proliferation: States of Key Concern
Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us because their regimes disregard
international opprobrium, flout UN Security Council restrictions on their nuclear programs,
pervert the legitimate purposes of governance, and ignore the needs and rights of their citizens. The United States' concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including Iran's neighbors. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons - despite its international obligations and international pressure. It is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations than reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution.
This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened by Iranian nuclear weapons. Any such development could prompt dangerous and destabilizing countermoves in a volatile region that is, because of its energy reserves, critical to the global economy.
